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Emerging Currency Blocs

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Author Info
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

Using the gravity model to examine bilateral trade patterns throughout the world. we find clear evidence of trading blocs in Europe. the Western Hemisphere, East Asia and the Pacific. In Europe, it is the EC that operates as a bloc, not including EFTA. Two EC members trade an extra 55 per cent more with each other. beyond what can be explained by proximity, size. and GNP/capita. We also find slight evidence of trade-diversion in 1990. Even though the blocs fall along natural geographic lines. they may actually be "super-natural." Turning to the possibility of currency blocs, we find a degree of intra-regional stabilization of exchange rates, especially in Europe. Not surprisingly. the European currencies link to the OM. and Western Hemisphere countries peg to the dollar. East Asian countries, however, link to the dollar. not the yen. We also find some tentative cross-section evidence that bilateral exchange rate stability may have a (small) effect on trade. A sample calculation suggests that if real exchange rate variability within Europe were to double, as it would if it returned from the 1990 level to the 1980 level, the volume of intra-regional trade might fall by an estimated 0.7 per cent.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4335.

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Date of creation: Apr 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4335

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F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gabriel Sterne & Tamim Bayoumi, . "Regional Trading Blocs, Mobile Capital and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," Bank of England working papers 12, Bank of England.
  2. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Is Japan creating a yen block in East Asia and the Pacific?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 92-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Other versions:
  5. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
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  7. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Is Bilateralism Bad?," NBER Working Papers 2972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Richard K. Abrams, 1980. "International trade flows under flexible exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Mar, pages 3-10. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2003. "Nominal Anchors in EU Accession Countries - Recent Experiences," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-267, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 6264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Benoit Cœure, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2002-07, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 2000. "Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2502, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Seminar Papers 611, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Serven, Luis & Frankel, Jeffrey & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Verifying exchange rate regimes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2397, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Masahiro Endoh, 2005. "The effects of the GSTP on trade flow: mission accomplished?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 487-496, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," NBER Working Papers 14016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Juliette Milgram, 2003. "Quantitative Restrictions on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of the Common Trade Policy Towards Developing Countries," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/04, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  15. Amponsah, William A. & Ofori-Boadu, Victor, 2007. "Determinants of U.S. Textile and Apparel Trade," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 10(02). [Downloadable!]
  16. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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