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European trade patterns after the transition

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Author Info
Havrylyshyn, Oleh
Pritchett, Lant

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Abstract

This paper concentrates on geographic direction of trade only. It applies a fairly conventional gravity model technique to answer the question: What would be the geographic pattern of trade of East and Central Europe (ECE) if their trade were determined by the same factors as those that affect market economies? It consists of the following sections: (a) a general introduction to this question and the paper's objectives; (b) a presentation of the model and the estimation results for a sample of non-socialist countries; and (c) a report on the ECE simulations. The paper concludes by predicting a dramatic shift in trade patterns and discusses the implications of such a shift.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 748.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 1991
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:748

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Related research
Keywords: TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Trade Policy; Trade and Services;

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Cited by:
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  1. Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
  2. Vedran Sosic & Boris Vujcic, 2005. "Trade integration and Croatian accession to the European Union," Chapters in books, in: Katarina Ott (ed.), Croatian Accession to the European Union: Facing the Challenges of Negotiations, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 61-84 Institute of Public Finance. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joze P. Damijan & Matija Rojec & Maja Ferjancic, 2008. "Growing export performance of transition economies: EU market access versus supply capacity factors," LICOS Discussion Papers 20208, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
  4. Braga, Carlos A. Primo & Safadi, Raed & Yeats, Alexander, 1994. "NAFTA's Implications for EastAsian exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1351, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ahmad, Jaleel & Yang, Jing, 1998. "Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of their Integration into the World Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  7. Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Could Regional Economic Cooperation Generate Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects without Altering Trade Policies of Members? Preliminary Results from a Gravity Application to BSEC," Departmental Working Papers 9810, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "Extending the EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade and Real Wage Effects," Discussion Paper Series 2003_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1993. "Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Disintegration of World Trade in the 1930s," NBER Working Papers 4445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Panagiotis Liargovas, Dionysios Chionis, 2001. "Economic Integration between the European Union and the Transition Economies of Central European Initiative Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 57-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Erzan, Refik & Holmes, Christopher & Safadi, Raed, 1992. "How changes in the former CMEA area may affect international trade in manufactures," Policy Research Working Paper Series 973, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Anonymous & Ballenger, Nicole, 2000. "Technological Changes in the Transportation Sector--Effects on U.S. Food and Agricultural Trade: A Proceedings," Miscellaneous Publications 33551, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. [Downloadable!]
  13. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek, 2003. "Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002," IMF Working Papers 03/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dhar, Sumana & Panagariya, Arvind, 1994. "Is East Asia less open than North America and the European Economic Community? No," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1370, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?," Discussion Paper Series 2003_8, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Michalopoulos, Constantine, 1999. "The integration of transition economies into the world trading system," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2182, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  18. Alfred Steinherr, 1995. "The Pivotal Role of the European Union for Central and Eastern Europe," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(III), pages 303-327, September. [Downloadable!]
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