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Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?

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  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

What idiosyncratic consumption risks can countries trade away on international asset markets? This paper develops an empirical methodology for answering the question. The tests are based on the proposition that in an integrated world asset market with representative national agents, the ex post difference between two countries' intertemporal marginal rates of substitution in consumption is uncorrelated with any random variable on which contractual payoffs can be conditioned. This result is applied to annual time-series data for the seven largest industrial countries over 1950-88. Of these countries, Germany seems to have been most successful at internationally diversifying its consumption risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4308.

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Date of creation: Nov 1994
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Publication status: forthcoming in Leonardo Leiderman and Assaf Razin, eds., Capital Mobility Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 1994
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4308

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  1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1990. "Realistic Cross-Country Consumption Correlations in a Two-Country, Equilibrium, Business Cycle Model," Working Papers 774, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "How Integrated are World Capital Markets? Some New Tests," NBER Working Papers 2075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  5. Robert Kollmann, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7642, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
  7. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-91, May.
  8. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-56, October.
  10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  11. repec:fth:calaec:16-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
  13. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. repec:fth:calaec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-76, October.
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