Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Risksharing within the United States: what have financial markets and fiscal federalism accomplished?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stafano Athanasoulis
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

We document aggregate income growth uncertainty at the state level, and the extent to which this uncertainty is reduced by risksharing through financial markets and federal fiscal policy. A methodology is adopted that is closely connected to the empirical growth literature. It does not rely on assumptions about a model or stochastic process of income. This is important because estimated gains from international risksharing have been found to be very sensitive to the assumed model or income process. We only make assumptions about the information set used to predict growth, which is sufficient (and necessary) to compute income growth uncertainty. Estimates of growth uncertainty for a representative state are obtained at horizons from one to twenty-six years from panel regressions of state income growth, in deviation from national growth, on variables in the information set. This "residual risk" can be fully diversified at a zero risk premium. We show that potential welfare gains from risksharing depend on a weighted average of the variance of residual risk at different horizons. Three measures of income are considered: gross state product, pre-tax state income, and disposable state income. The differences between the first two is associated with financial markets (net asset income), while the difference between the last two is associated with federal fiscal policy (federal taxes and transfers). At a 26-year horizon we find that 71% of potential welfare gains from risksharing have already been achieved; 60% through financial markets and 11% through federal fiscal policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9808.html
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Diane Rosenberger)
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9808.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9808.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9808

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001
Email:
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal policy ; Risk ; Financial markets;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-29, December.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  3. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  4. Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1997. "Income and Consumption Smoothing Among US States: Regions or Clubs?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1670, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Stefano Athanasoulis & Robert Shiller & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Macro markets and financial security," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 21-39.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
  7. Robert M. Townsend, . "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 91-3a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  8. Stefano Athanasoulis & Eric van Wincoop, 1997. "Growth uncertainty and risksharing," Staff Reports 30, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Sachs, Jeffrey & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Michael W. Klein & Tamim Bayoumi, 1997. "A Provincial View of Economic Integration," IMF Working Papers 97/41, International Monetary Fund.
  12. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Evaluating Risky Consumption Paths: The Role of Intertemporal Substitutability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Andrew Atkeson & Tamim Bayoumi, 1993. "Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 303-324, September.
  15. Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
  17. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
  18. van Wincoop, Eric, 1995. "Regional risksharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1545-1567, October.
  19. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
  20. Barro, Robert T. & Sala-I-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Regional growth and migration: A Japan-United States comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 312-346, December.
  21. Robert Shiller, 2004. "World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm151, Yale School of Management.
  22. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  23. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  24. Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, July.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, July.
  25. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Altug, Sumru & Miller, Robert A, 1990. "Household Choices in Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 543-70, May.
  27. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1998. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 289-313, April.
  28. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "How does public infrastructure affect regional economic performance?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 69-112.
  29. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-80.
  30. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  31. Hayashi, Fumio & Altonji, Joseph & Kotlikoff, Laurence, 1996. "Risk-Sharing between and within Families," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 261-94, March.
  32. Gregory D. Hess & Kwanho Shin, 1997. "Risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries," Research Working Paper 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  33. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
  34. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R., 1995. "Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-274, February.
  35. Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 1998. "International risk sharing and European monetary unification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 211-238, August.
  36. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
  37. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-76, October.
  38. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-56, October.
  39. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-46, May.
  40. Melitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frederic, 2002. "Regional redistribution and stabilization by the center in Canada, France, the UK and the US:: A reassessment and new tests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 263-286, November.
  41. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June.
  42. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sebnem Kalemi-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Risk Sharing and Sectoral Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1582, Econometric Society.
  2. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Basher, Syed A. & Balli, Faruk & Louis, Rosmy, 2009. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961–2006," MPRA Paper 17300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Zahir, Antia & Djoudad, Ramdane & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "Canada’s Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms," Working Papers 99-17, Bank of Canada.
  5. Davide Furceri, 2002. "Risk-sharing e architettura istituzionale delle politiche di stabilizzazione nell'UME: aspetti metodologici e verifica empirica," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 175-210, November-.
  6. Gregory D. Hess & Kwanho Shin, 1997. "Risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries," Research Working Paper 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  8. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
  9. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
  10. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?," NBER Working Papers 10505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ortuno-Ortin, Ignacio & Sempere, Jaume, 2006. "A theoretical model of nations, regions and fiscal integration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 132-157, January.
  12. Konrad Szelag, 2008. "A Single Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area: Vision or Utopia?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 46, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9808

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.