Population Potentials and Development Levels: Empirical Findings in the European Union
AbstractIn this paper we deal with the issue of the spatial structure of Europe. In order to carry out our study, we use the technique of gravity models to compute population potentials, and then plot potential maps, which allow us to represent the main lines of force in terms of the geographical distribution of the population and consequently the main economic activity in the area as well. We also use the data which corresponds to the future acceding countries in order to better analyse the effects of European Union enlargement from a spatial perspective. The findings about the spatial structure of Europe were carried out to a further stage, testing econometrically the explanatory power that population potentials have on the levels of development. Using a logarithm specification for the relationship between population potentials and levels of development and estimating cross-section regressions for different time periods we evaluated if the explanatory power of the population potentials was hold constant over time or if on the contrary it was decreasing as long as we move forward testing our model for the latest data available (1999). Our proposed relationship was estimated in different years, 1982, 1989, 1994, 1997 and 1999. What we have found is that closeness to large consumer markets or in other words, market potential, was an important explanatory variable for regional income in the early eighties and that it has decreased its significance in determining regions income on the 1990´s. Thus dynamic income regions have also emerged in the periphery, and need not necessarily be close to rich regions. The main reasons for this tendency reside in a trend towards the delocalisation of economic activities driven by technical advances in transport, information and communication, together with tendencies towards convergence in a unified economic space and the impulse generated by the new EU regional policy which began in 1987 after the European Single Act. JEL classification: A12; J11; N30; R23 Keywords: Spatial structure; Population Potential contours; Spatial planning; Potential maps; Population settlements
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa03p30.
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Augasse 2-6, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
- R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Kalirajan, K.P., 2000. "Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC): Impact on Australia’s Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 533-547.
- Egger, Peter, 2000.
"A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation,"
Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
- Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
- Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
NBER Working Papers
6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-92, December.
- Smith, Pamela J., 1999. "Are weak patent rights a barrier to U.S. exports?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 151-177, June.
- Fitzsimons, E. & Hogan, V. & Neary, J.P., 1999.
"Explaining the volume of North-South Trade in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach,"
99/14, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
- Emla Fitzsimons & Vincent Hogan & J. Peter Neary, 1999. "Explaining the Volume of North-South Trade in Ireland - A Gravity Model Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 381-401.
- Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot, 1999.
"Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen,"
Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1168.
- Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot & Lionel Fontagné, 1999. "Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1139-1168.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
NBER Working Papers
5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998.
"Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural or Supernatural?,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 91-120
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?," NBER Working Papers 4588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bikker, Jacob A, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 315-37.
- Fitzsimons, Emla & Hogan, Vincent (Vincent Peter) & Neary, J. Peter, 1999. "Explaining the volume of north south trade : a gravity model approach," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/48, University College Dublin.
- Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998.
"Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods,"
NBER Working Papers
6804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xinpeng Xu, 2000. "International Trade and Environmental Regulation: Time Series Evidence and Cross Section Test," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(3), pages 233-257, November.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.