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CARICOM Bilateral Trade: A Preliminary Analysis Using the Gravity Model

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  • Sandberg, H. Mikael
  • Taylor, Timothy G.
  • Seale, James L., Jr.

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of intra-CARICOM bilateral trade and the CARICOM member's trade with the North American and European countries using the gravity model. Seventeen annual cross-sections are estimated for the period 1980 through 1996. Overall, the empirical results indicate that the gravity model has considerable potential to explain intra-CARICOM bilateral trade as well as trade between CARICOM members and non-members. The evidence suggests that both the importer's GDP per capita and the exporter's GDP per capita exert strong positive effects on CARICOM trade levels. Since these effects are found to be statistically the same, we conclude that the gravity model is symmetric with respect to GDP per capita. Further, sharing a common language, colonial ties, or membership in the CARICOM all significantly contribute to larger volumes of bilateral trade, while geographic distance has the opposite effect. Both the exporting and the importing countries' populations have a positive effect on trade levels, indicating that larger economies have a wider production base and thus export and import more than would smaller economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center in its series Technical Papers with number 15636.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uflotp:15636

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Web page: http://www.iatpc.ifas.ufl.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: Caribbean economies; CARICOM; FTAA; gravity model; regional integration; International Relations/Trade;

References

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  6. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  12. Baldwin, Richard E., 1997. "Comment on Gros and Gonciarz," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 187-188, February.
  13. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  14. Boisso, Dale & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Economic Distance, Cultural Distance, and Openness in International Trade : Empirical Puzzles," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 456-484.
  15. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  16. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
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