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Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union

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Author Info
Michael R. Pakko
Howard J. Wall

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Abstract

This paper reconsiders recent empirical evidence found by Andrew Rose that countries adopting a common currency will triple their bilateral trade. The authors find that this large estimated effect is due to estimation bias arising from missing and/or misspecified time-variant factors rather than to the adoption of a common currency. The results of this study, obtained with a general specification of time-variant factors, indicate that a common currency actually leads to a small reduction in trade over a 5-year period, although this result is not statistically different from zero. The authors also find that over 10- and 20-year periods, trade volumes are more than halved by the adoption of a common currency.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 37-46
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:may:p:37-46:n:v.83no.5

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Keywords: International trade ; Money;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
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