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How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?

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  • Timothy J. Kehoe

    ()
    (University of Minnesota)

  • Kim J. Ruhl

Abstract

We examine the bilateral trade patterns of countries involved in significant trade liberalizations using detailed data on the value of trade flows by commodity. We find a striking relationship between a good's pre-liberalization share in trade and its growth subsequent to liberalization. The goods that were traded the least before the liberalization account for a disproportionate share in trade following the reduction of trade barriers. The set of goods that accounted for only 10 percent of trade before the liberalization may account for as much as 40 percent of trade following the liberalization. This new finding cannot be accounted for by the standard models of trade, which rely on increases in previously traded goods to produce trade growth. We modify the standard Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson model of Ricardian trade to provide a model capable of delivering these new facts. Our specification improves on previous Ricardian models by providing a technology process that can be calibrated using data on intra-industry trade

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 733.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:733

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Keywords: extensive margin; trade liberalization; Ricardian model;

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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 166-205, January.
  3. Horag Choi & George Alessandria, 2004. "Export Decisions and International Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 570, Econometric Society.
  4. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  5. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Trade Integration and Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 8804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
  7. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
  8. Grubel, Herbert G & Lloyd, P J, 1971. "The Empirical Measurement of Intra- Industry Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 47(120), pages 494-517, December.
  9. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Russell Hillberry & Christine McDaniel, 2003. "A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA," International Trade 0303003, EconWPA.
  11. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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