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Trade Integration and Risk Sharing

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  • Aart Kraay
  • Jaume Ventura

Abstract

What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8804.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Publication status: published as Kraay, Aart and Jaume Ventura. "Trade Integration And Risk Sharing," European Economic Review, 2002, v46(6,Jun), 1023-1048.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8804

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  4. James Harrigan, 1998. "Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions," Staff Reports 36, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Broda, Christian, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes and national price levels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-81, September.
  2. Mathias Hoffmann, 2008. "The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 183-201, April.
  3. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "When and How Much Does a Peg Increase Trade? The Role of Trade Costs and Import Demand Elasticity under Monetary Uncertainty," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000203, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "Effects of the exchange-rate regime on trade: the role of price setting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Attilio Gardini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2005. "Risk Sharing, avversione al rischio e stabilizzazione delle economie regionali in Italia," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(3), pages 219-266, May-June.
  6. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," NBER Working Papers 10540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime," International Finance 0509004, EconWPA, revised 07 Nov 2005.
  8. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2006. "How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," 2006 Meeting Papers 733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Christian Broda, 2002. "Uncertainty, exchange rate regimes, and national price levels," Staff Reports 151, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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