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What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?

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Author Info
Timothy J. Kehoe

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Abstract

Currently, Argentina is experiencing what the government describes as a "great depression." Using the "Great Depressions" methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002), we find that the primary determinants of both the boom in Argentina in the 1990s and the subsequent depression were changes in productivity, rather than changes in factor inputs. The timing of events links the boom to the currency-board-like Convertibility Plan and the crisis to its collapse. To gain credibility, the Argentine government took measures to make abandoning the plan more costly. Because the government was unable to enforce fiscal discipline, however, these increased costs failed to make the plan more credible and instead made the crisis far worse when it failed.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 318.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy> (Vol. 50, No. 5, November 2003, pp. 609-633)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:318

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Keywords: Argentina ; Monetary policy - Argentina;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Prescott, Edward C, 1998. "Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-51, August.
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  6. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 467, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2004. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Staff Report 334, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-24. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment in Five Latin American Countries," Development Research Working Paper Series 14/2007, Institute for Advanced Development Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Orlando Gracia & Hernando Zuleta, 2007. "Tratado de libre comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos: ¿Qué impacto puede tener en Colombia?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004369, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tasso Adamopoulos, 2008. "Land Inequality and the Transition to Modern Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 257-282, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David Benjamin, Felipe Meza, . "Productivity in Economies with Financial Frictions: Facts and a Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0613, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
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