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Deconstructing China’s and India’s Growth - The Role of Financial Policies

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  • Jahangir Aziz

    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations)

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    Abstract

    This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why Chinas consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. In one form or the other, these distortions have implied significant transfers from households to firms. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22142.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22142

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    Related research

    Keywords: Business cycle accounting; rebalancing growth; financial distortions;

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    1. Gomes, Joao F & Yaron, Amir & Zhang, Lu, 2003. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
    3. Chow, G.C., 1990. "Capital Formation And Economic Growth In China," Papers 356, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    4. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
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    7. Hiroko Oura, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth in India," IMF Working Papers 08/79, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Wendy Dobson & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "The Contradiction in China's Gradualist Banking Reforms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 103-162.
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    14. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J & Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A decade lost and found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Staff Report 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Meghana Ayyagari & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2010. "Formal versus Informal Finance: Evidence from China," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3048-3097, August.
    16. Suparna Chakraborty, 2005. "Real Estate Prices, Borrowing Constraints and Business Cycles -A Study of the Japanese Economy," Macroeconomics 0504012, EconWPA.
    17. Ghosh, Saibal, 2006. "Did financial liberalization ease financing constraints? Evidence from Indian firm-level data," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 176-190, June.
    18. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    19. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "India in the 1980's and 1990's," IMF Working Papers 04/43, International Monetary Fund.
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