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Ce qu'on en dit après - le Currency Board argentin et sa fin tragique

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  • Jérôme Sgard
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    Abstract

    L’Argentine a mené entre 1991 et 2001 une des expériences de currency board les plus remarquables de la période moderne. Comment rendre compte de cette expérience, prise dans son ensemble ? Qu’apprend-elle sur les avantages et les inconvénients des currency board ? Comment expliquer son échec final et quelles conclusions plus générales en tirer ? Telles sont les questions auxquelles cet article souhaite apporter des éléments de réponse. Pour cela, l’auteur commence par rappeler les principaux caractères de ce modèle, puis met en perspective la trajectoire de l’économie argentine au cours des années 1991-2001 ; enfin, il analyse les principales thèses défendues depuis la fin de 2001, en s’en tenant principalement au débat international.

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    File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6827/resources/sgard-ref-2004.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/6827.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Publication status: Published in Revue d'économie financière, 2004, pp.129-152
    Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6827

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    Keywords: E42; F31; F33; O54;

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    1. Taylor, Alan M., 1998. "Argentina and the world capital market: saving, investment, and international capital mobility in the twentieth century," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 147-184, October.
    2. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2002. "Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gerald Caprio & Michael Dooley & Danny Leipziger & Carl Walsh, 1996. "The lender of last resort function under a currency board: The case of Argentina," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 625-650, March.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
    5. Gerardo Della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Gaucho Banking Redux," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    6. William Dillinger & Steven B. Webb, 1999. "Fiscal management in federal democracies: Argentina and Brazil," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(3), pages 423-483.
    7. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2004. "Tango with the gringo: the hard peg and real misalign ment in Argentina," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0405, Banco de Espa�a.
    8. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Augusto de la Torre & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina´s Currency Board," Business School Working Papers catorce, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    9. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, July.
    10. Dillinger, William & Webb, Steven B., 1999. "Fiscal management in federal democracies : Argentina and Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2121, The World Bank.
    11. Finn Kydland & Carlos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's recovery and excess capital shallowing of the 1990s," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1 Year 20), pages 35-45, June.
    12. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Financial Dedollarization: A Carrot and Stick Approach," Business School Working Papers nueve, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    13. Jérôme Sgard, 2002. "Le peso argentin peut-il résister à la concurrence du dollar ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8184, Sciences Po.
    14. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 318, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina," NBER Working Papers 9257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lee J. Alston & Andres Gallo, 2000. "Evolution and Revolution in the Argentine Banking System under Convertibility: The Roles of Crises and Path Dependence," NBER Working Papers 8008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    18. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    19. Perry, Guillermo & Serven, Luis, 2003. "The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3081, The World Bank.
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