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How important is the new goods margin in international trade?

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Author Info
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

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Abstract

We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral trade due to countries exporting goods that they did not export previously or exported only in small quantities. Applying this methodology to country pairs that undergo trade liberalization and to pairs in which one of the countries undergoes significant structural transformation, we find large increases on this extensive—or new goods—margin. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little or no increases on the extensive margin. Studying time series on trade by commodity, we find that data from before 1988 and 1989, when most major trading countries moved to the Harmonized System, are not compatible with data from afterward.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 324.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:324

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Keywords: International trade ; Free trade;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Trade integration and risk sharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1023-1048, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  4. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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