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The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement

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Author Info
Jelle Brouwer
Richard Paap
Jean-Marie Viaene ()

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Abstract

This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the ten countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a dataset of unbalanced panel data that combines bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries. The results reveal a complementarity between trade and investment and a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depends on the sign of bilateral trade balances. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5 percent for Poland and 30 percent for Hungary.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2123.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2123

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Related research
Keywords: EMU; exchange rate volatility; foreign investment; trade diversion; vertical integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Petroulas, Pavlos, 2007. "The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1468-1491, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Keith Head, 2003. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 980-994, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1992. "Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 815-826, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks," NBER Working Papers 10864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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  19. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Richard E. Baldwin, 2006. "The euro's trade effect," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Klaassen, Franc, 2004. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 817-839, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. repec:fth:michin:382 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro & Matthias Lücke, 1999. "Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 95-121, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Henry Aray & Javier Gardeazabal, 2008. "Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," ThE Papers 08/19, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ansgar Belke & Julia Spies, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 369-389, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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