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A rolling test of granger causality between the Finnish and Japanese security markets

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  • Aaltonen, J.
  • Östermark, R.
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    Abstract

    In the paper we test the impact of the Japanese stock market on two financial asset groups, free and restricted shares, on the Finnish market in the early 90s. The causality is tested in the Granger sense. The research issue is particularly interesting, since the restrictions on foreign ownership were abolished by the end of 1992. The linkage between the Japanese and Finnish financial economies is seen to be stronger for free shares than for restricted. In particular, significant Granger causality between Japanese and Finnish free shares is observed at relatively long consecutive time intervals, whereas the Japanese impact on the restricted shares is only occasional. Thus, the decision to abolish the restrictions not only leads to increased international dependence in the future, but will also change the risk profile of the restricted shares.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 25 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 635-642

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:25:y:1997:i:6:p:635-642

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    Keywords: Granger causality international asset pricing restricted vs free shares;

    References

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    1. Bailey, Warren & Jagtiani, Julapa, 1994. "Foreign ownership restrictions and stock prices in the Thai capital market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 57-87, August.
    2. Kang, Heejoon, 1989. "The optimal lag selection and transfer function analysis in Granger causality tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 151-169, April.
    3. Hietala, Pekka T, 1989. " Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 697-718, July.
    4. Agmon, Tamir, 1973. "Country Risk: The Significance of the Country Factor for Share-Price Movements in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 24-32, January.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    6. Steven J Cochran & Iqbal Mansur, 1991. "The Interrelationships Between U.S. and Foreign Equity Market Yields: Tests of Granger Causality," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 723-736, December.
    7. Malkamäki, Markku & Martikainen, Teppo & Perttunen, Jukka & Puttonen, Vesa, 1993. "On the causality and co-movements of scandinavian stock market returns," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 67-76, March.
    8. Ostermark, Ralf & Hoglund, Rune, 1997. "Multivariate EGARCHX-Modelling of the International Asset Return Signal Response Mechanism," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 249-62, July.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    10. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
    11. Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1992. "The International Crash of October 1987: Causality Tests," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 353-364, September.
    12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    13. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-78, May.
    14. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
    15. Kang, Heejoon, 1985. "The Effects of Detrending in Granger Causality Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 344-49, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lu, Feng-bin & Hong, Yong-miao & Wang, Shou-yang & Lai, Kin-keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Time-varying Granger causality tests for applications in global crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-298.

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