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Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?

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Author Info
Granger, Clive W J

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Abstract

A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1996)
Issue (Month): 5 (Sept.-Oct.)
Pages: 455-73
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:5:p:455-73

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  1. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Barot, Bharat, 2007. "Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 98, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and long-horizon forecasting," Working Papers 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 1999. "The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-18, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 72, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. John G. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2006. "How Far Can We Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons For Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 2006-13, McGill University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Forecast Content And Content Horizons For Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 2007-01, McGill University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jef Vuchelen & Maria-Isabel Gutierrez, 2005. "Do the OECD 24 month horizon growth forecasts for the G7--countries contain information?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 855-862, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 1997. "Measuring Lag Structure in Forecasting Models - the Introduction of Time Distance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-24, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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