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Beyond Cheap Talks: Assessing the Undervaluation of the Chinese Currency between 1994 and 2007

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  • Jinzhao Chen

    (ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand, CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

Using new cointegration framework with structural breaks in the deterministic trend of Johansen et al. (2000), with recent data and the precise calculated trade weights, this article employs the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of Renminbi (RMB) and exchange rate misalignment in China from 1994Q1 to 2007Q4. The main findings of the article are that RMB was overvalued during the Asian financial crisis and during the period of 2001-2002. It was undervalued to a mild extent only during recent period from 2003 to 2005, except at the beginning of the sample; furthermore, slight overvaluations have appeared after the reform of exchange rate regime in 2005. Interpretations are given to shed some light on these movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinzhao Chen, 2009. "Beyond Cheap Talks: Assessing the Undervaluation of the Chinese Currency between 1994 and 2007," Post-Print hal-03722246, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03722246
    DOI: 10.3917/ecoi.119.0047
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03722246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Garroway, Chris & Hacibedel, Burcu & Reisen, Helmut & Turkisch, Edouard, 2012. "The Renminbi and Poor-country Growth," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 273-294.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    3. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    4. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    5. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    6. Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane & Hua, Ping, 2011. "How does real exchange rate influence labour productivity in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645.
    7. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; cointegration; misalignment; Renminbi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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