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Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area

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Author Info
Roberto Golinelli
Sergio Pastorello

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Abstract

Modelling monetary transmission is central to understanding the role of monetary policy in the Euro area, and money demand is commonly seen as a link in that transmission mechanism. Since the beginning of the 1990s, many studies have suggested that the demand for Euro area broad money is stable over the long run because the estimation of an area-wide demand for money function provides an appropriate solution to a number of potential causes of misspecification of the single-country relations (such as spillover effects and currency substitution), and enjoys the positive consequences of a statistical averaging effect. On the other side, it must be stressed that previous benefits can be achieved at the risk of introducing parameter heterogeneity into the area-wide relationship. In order to shed some light on the issue, this study is first devoted to an analysis of the main econometric features of the money M3 demand at Euro area and single country levels, then it compares the two sets of results in a common framework that, differently from all previous studies, explicitly takes account of the potential nonstationarity of the variables of interest in both estimation and testing phases. The comparison shows that the area-wide money demand is more smooth and less subject to shocks than the single-country ones. Finally, a number of poolability tests run over subgroups highlight that low precision associated with the estimates of the parameters of the national models makes it impossible to exclude that their long-run specifications do in fact coincide.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 371-401
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:371-401

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Related research
Keywords: Money Demand; Area-WIDE; Country-SPECIFIC; Poolability;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "M3 Money Demand and Excess Liquidity in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "Is European Money Demand Still Stable?," Kiel Working Papers 1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2004. "Money Demand in theEuroArea: Do National Differences Matter?," Macroeconomics 0404019, EconWPA, revised 24 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2005. "Money and Prices in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roberto A. De Santis & Carlo A. Favero & Barbara Roffia, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation - a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2004. "A Small Monetary System for the Euro Area Based on German Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/24, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 119, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Abelardo Salazar Neaves & Oliver Hossfeld & Jan Hagen & Kai Carstensen, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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