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Is there a stable money demand equation at the Community level? - Evidence, using a cointegration analysis approach, for the Euro-Zone countries and for the Community as a whole

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  • Kieran Mc Morrow
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    Abstract

    A stable and predictable demand for money function is a pre-requisite for the use of targets for monetary aggregates as a suitable intermediate objective of monetary policy. In spite of the clear difficulties which have manifested themselves in the estimation of such money functions, empirical interest has been renewed over the last decade driven by the belief that a stable long-run money demand relationship continues to exist. This revival of activity in this area was aided and abetted by the coming on stream of new econometric techniques, especially in the area of cointegration analysis and error correction models. Using these new econometric techniques, this paper looks again at the aggregate data for the Euro Zone countries and for the Community as a whole and tries to answer the question of whether a stable, cointegrating, money demand function exists at the Euro Zone and EC15 levels.

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    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication11195_en.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 131.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0131

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    Keywords: monetary policy; emu;

    References

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    1. Carlo Monticelli & Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1992. "European integration and the demand for broad money," BIS Working Papers 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Goldfeld, Stephen M & Sichel, Daniel E, 1987. "Money Demand: The Effects of Inflation and Alternative Adjustment Mechanisms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 511-15, August.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1996. "The Rise and Fall of Money Growth Targets as Guidelines for U.S. Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
    7. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
    9. Paul R. Masson & Bart Turtelboom, 1997. "Characteristics of the Euro, the Demand for Reserves, and Policy Coordination Under EMU," IMF Working Papers 97/58, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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