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The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H

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  • Katrin Wesche

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Abstract

The paper assesses the stability and predictive performance of a European money demand function as compared to national money demand functions. With respect to the explanatory accuracy, the national functions perform better than the aggregated function. Examination of the residuals of the national money demand equations indicates that currency substitution is not the major cause for the stability of the aggregated money demand function. The aggregate relation mainly seems to reflect German money demand. This conclusion is supported by the instability of aggregated money demand resulting from the exclusion of Germany from the aggregate. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008243130051
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 371-391

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:8:y:1997:i:4:p:371-391

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: demand for money; European Monetary Union; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
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  5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
  6. Bayoumi, Tamim A & Kenen, Peter B, 1993. "How Useful Is an EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate as an Intermediate Target for Europe?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 209-20, October.
  7. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April.
  8. Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Anne Marie Gulde, 1992. "Aggregation of Economic Indicators Across Countries," IMF Working Papers 92/36, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Wesche, Katrin, 1996. "Aggregation Bias in Estimating European Money Demand Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 393, University of Bonn, Germany.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  13. Timothy D. Lane & Stephen S. Poloz, 1992. "Currency Substitution and Cross-Border Monetary Aggregation," IMF Working Papers 92/81, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Giucca, P. & Levy, A., 1992. "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy Coordination on the Way to Economi c and Monetary Union: The Role of Cross-Border Deposits," Papers 162, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  15. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
  16. Edwards, John B & Orcutt, Guy H, 1969. "Should Aggregation Prior to Estimation Be the Rule?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 409-20, November.
  17. Martin Falk & Norbert Funke, 1995. "The stability of money demand in Germany and in the EMS: Impact of German unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 470-488, September.
  18. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  19. Angeloni, Ignazio & Cottarelli, Carlo & Levy, Aviram, 1994. "Cross-border deposits, aggregation, and money demand in the transition to EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-54, February.
  20. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 1-32, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elke Hahn & Christian Müller, 2000. "Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 204, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Volker Clausen, 1998. "Money demand and monetary policy in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 712-740, December.
  4. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "Will The Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_322, Levy Economics Institute.
  5. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 61, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  6. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2003. "How Robustare Money Demand Estimations? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Working Papers 81, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable?: Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 982, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, EconWPA.
  9. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Hamori, Naoko, 2008. "Demand for money in the Euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 274-284, September.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
  12. von Hagen, Jürgen & Brückner, Matthias, 2001. "Monetary policy in unknown territory: The European Central Bank in the early years," ZEI Working Papers B 18-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.

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