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Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past

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Author Info
Elke Hahn
Christian Müller

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Abstract

The conditions under which European monetary policy is likely to be conducted are investigated by means of multi-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis identifies two stable long-run relationships within a set of five key macroeconomic variables, one of which can be interpreted as a money demand function and a second one as a long term real interest rate (Fisher parity). Our findings indicate that monetary authorities might well be able to base their policy on the existence of a money demand. Particular emphasis is given both to the data sources and their aggregation, by providing a transparent account of our calculation procedure, which is not yet common in the existing literature.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38555.de/dp204.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 204.

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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp204

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Saikkonen, Pentti & Luukkonen, Ritva, 1997. "Testing cointegration in infinite order vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 93-126, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ivo Arnold, 1994. "The myth of a stable European money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wesche, Katrin, 1995. "The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H," Discussion Paper Serie B 337, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. H. Lütkepohl, . "Vector Autoregressions," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-4, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jan Gottschalk, 1999. "A Cointegration Analysis of a Money Demand System in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 902, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. K. Hubrich & H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, . "A Review of Systems Cointegration Tests," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1998-101, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  11. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
  12. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area — A Simulation Experiment," Kiel Working Papers 1057, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. O. Holtemöller, . "Money and Prices: An I(2) Analysis for the Euro Area," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-12, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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