Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area

Contents:

Author Info

  • A. Calza
  • C. Gartner
  • J. Sousa

Abstract

This article studies the determinants of loans to the private sector in the euro area. Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies one cointegrating relationship linking real loans, GDP and interest rates. This relationship implies that in the long-run real loans are positively related to real GDP and negatively to real short-term and long-term interest rates. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the cointegrating vector describes a long-run demand equation. The short-run dynamics of the demand for euro area real loans is subsequently modelled by means of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). A number of specification tests performed on the VECM produce satisfactory results, with tests of stability of the model parameters showing no signs of structural breaks during the sample period (1980: 1-1999: 2). All of this suggests that developments in real loans to the private sector in the euro area can be reasonably explained by the model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840210161837
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 107-117

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:107-117

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
  5. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  6. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
  9. de Bandt, Olivier & Jacquinot, Pascal, 1992. "The financing of corporate firms in France : An econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 253-269, July.
  10. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Jan Kakes, 2000. "Identifying the mechanism: is there a bank lending channel of monetary transmission in the Netherlands?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 63-67.
  12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  13. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  15. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  16. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Octomber.
  18. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0055, European Central Bank.
  19. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
  20. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  21. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic activity and the short-term credit markets: an analysis of prices and quantities," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  22. Fase, M. M. G. & Kramer, P. & Boeschoten, W. C., 1992. "MORKMON II : The Nederlandsche Bank's quarterly model of the Netherlands economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 146-204, April.
  23. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  24. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:107-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.