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House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: results from a structural VAR analysis

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Author Info
Matteo M. Iacoviello (University of London, Department of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.)

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Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach is used to identify the forces driving house prices fluctuations in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK over the period 1970-1998. Quarterly time series for real house prices, GDP, money, inflation and interest rates are characterised by a multivariate process driven by supply, nominal, monetary, inflationary and demand shocks. It is found that: (1) tight money leads to a concomitant fall in house prices and GDP; (2) the house price responses to a monetary shock can be partly justified by the dif-ferent housing and financial market institutions across countries; (3) monetary and demand shocks drive most of the short-run house price volatility. The paper also interprets the main house price cycles and their links with the real economy in light of the estimates shocks. JEL Classification: C32; E32; E52; R21.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 18.

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Length: 66 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20000018

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Related research
Keywords: House prices; vector autoregressions; monetary policy.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert S. Chirinko & Leo de Haan & Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Asset Price Shocks, Real Expenditures, and Financial Structure: A Multi-Country Analysis," DNB Working Papers 014, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries," DNB Working Papers 015, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Beatriz Larraz-Iribas & Jose-Luis Alfaro-Navarro, 2008. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 407-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael Haliassos & Pany Karamanou & Constantinos Ktoris & George Syrichas, 2008. "Mortgage Debt, Social Customs,and Financial Innovation," Working Papers 2008-2, Central Bank of Cyprus, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Diana Kasparova, Michael White, 2001. "The Responsiveness Of House Prices To Macroeconomic Forces: A Cross-Countr Y Comparison," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 385-416, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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