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A cointegration analysis of a money demand system in Europe

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  • Gottschalk, Jan

Abstract

This paper presents a multivariate analysis of a money demand system in Europe. The system comprises real broad money, real GDP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a short-term interest rate. Two stable cointegration vectors can be identified: a money demand function and a long-run Fisher equation. Inflation does not play a role in the specification of the European money demand function. Stability of money demand is generally seen as a precondition for monetary targeting. No suggestive evidence for structural instability is found for long-run money demand. This is of particular relevance for the monetary strategy of the ECB.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottschalk, Jan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of a money demand system in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 902, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:902
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Simulation Experiment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 416-433.
    2. Elke Hahn & Christian Müller, 2000. "Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 204, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Müller, Christian & Hahn, Elke, 2000. "Money demand in Europe: Evidence from the past," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    6. Strauß Hubert, 2003. "Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 176-203, April.
    7. Jan Gottschalk & Susanne Bröck, 2000. "Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 69-89.
    8. Kosfeld Reinhold, 2002. "Asset Price Channel and Financial Markets / Vermögenstheoretischer Transmissionsmechanismus und Finanzmärkte," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(4), pages 440-462, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Demand in Europe; European Monetary Union;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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