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Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?

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Author Info
Jan Gottschalk
Susanne Bröck
Abstract

Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Grundlagen des P*-Ansatzes und vergleicht seine Prognoseleistung mit derjenigen nicht-monetärer Inflationsindikatoren für den Euro-Raum. Die Relevanz der Quantitätstheorie, die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage und die Rolle von Geldmengen im Transmissionsmechanismus werden auf theoretischer Ebene für das P*-Konzept diskutiert. Es zeigt sich, dass es vor allem eine empirische
Frage ist, ob das P*-Modell anderen Inflationsindikatoren überlegen ist. Für einen solchen Prognosevergleich werden zunächst alternative Inflationsindikatoren ausgewählt und drei verschiedene Varianten des P*-Modells vorgestellt. Es wird herausgearbeitet, dass der P*-Ansatz einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Inflationsprognose für den Euro-Raum leisten kann, aber Gleiches gilt auch für eine Reihe anderer Indikatoren.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 69 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 69-89
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:69-10-5

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