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P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity

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Athanasios Orphanides
Richard Porter

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Abstract

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to obtain real-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a $P^*$ model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model based on our time-varying equilibrium velocity estimates does quite well.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-26.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-26

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Forecasting;

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  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," NBER Working Papers 9390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  3. John B. Carlson & Jeffrey C. Schwarz, 1999. "Effects of movements in equities prices on M2 demand," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Central Bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 967, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Qayyum, Abdul & Bilquees, Faiz, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Herwartz, Helmut, 2001. "Long-Run Links Among Money, Prices, and Output: World-Wide Evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2008. "Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the United States and the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 6812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 09/17, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2005. "Money and Prices in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  14. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  16. Seth B. Carpenter & Joe Lange, 2003. "Money demand and equity markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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