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Does money lead inflation in the euro area?

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Author Info
Sergio Nicoletti Altimari () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract

This paper investigates the properties of monetary and credit aggregates as indicators for future price developments in the euro area. The forecasting performance of models including indicators based on money and credit is assessed in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for forecast horizons varying from one quarter to three years ahead. The performance of these models is compared with that of models which include indicators based on financial markets, real activity, the labour market and various cost and price measures. The results support the idea that monetary and credit aggregates provide significant and independent information for future price developments in the euro area, especially at medium term horizons. JEL Classification: E31; E40; C32.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 063.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010063

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Related research
Keywords: euro area inflation leading indicators money P-Star.

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Engert, Walter & Selody, Jack, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  17. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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