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M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area

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  • Christian Dreger

    ()

  • Jürgen Wolters

    ()

Abstract

Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run money demand relationship for M3 with reasonable long run behaviour. This finding is robust for different (ML and S2S) estimation methods. To obtain the result, the short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices is relaxed. In addition, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 is taken into account. The break might be linked to the introduction of euro coins and banknotes. The monetary overhang and the real money gap do not indicate significant inflation pressures. The corresponding error correction model survives a battery of specification tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 144 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 459-472

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:144:y:2010:i:3:p:459-472

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

Related research

Keywords: Cointegration analysis; Error correction; Excess liquidity; Monetary policy; Money demand; C22; C52; E41;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wei Liao & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 14/75, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," FIW Working Paper series 119, FIW.
  4. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
  5. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2011. "Money and inflation in the euro area during the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 300, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
  7. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07012 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
  9. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo Group Munich.

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