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Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area : New Evidence Based on Standard Models

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Author Info
Christian Dreger
Jürgen Wolters

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Abstract

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target level especially since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run relationship between the variables entering the money demand function. Instead the equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are included. Since the link between money balances and macroeconomic variables seems to has become rather fragile, these results put serious doubts concerning the rationale of monetary aggregates in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB. However, if the analysis is done without imposing a short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices, a stable long run money demand relationship can be identified, where recursively estimated parameters are almost stable. In addition, the corresponding error correction model survives a wide array of specification tests, including procedures for nonlinearities and parameter instability. Hence, the apparent monetary overhang is in line with standard models of money demand behaviour, and is not expected to lead to a rise in inflation.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 561.

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Length: 48 p.
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp561

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegration analysis Error correction Money demand Monetary policy

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Terasvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jurgen, 1999. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 511-25, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "Is European Money Demand Still Stable?," Kiel Working Papers 1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Neumann, Manfred J.M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bosker, E.M., 2006. "On the aggregation of eurozone data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 260-265, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Oliver Holtemöller, 2004. "A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 553-574, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Dynamic Modelling of the Demand for Money in Latvia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 703, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2007. "An actuarial approach to short-run monetary equilibrium," MPRA Paper 2424, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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