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Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target level especially since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run relationship between the variables entering the money demand function. Instead the equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are included. Since the link between money balances and macroeconomic variables seems to has become rather fragile, these results put serious doubts concerning the rationale of monetary aggregates in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB. However, if the analysis is done without imposing a short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices, a stable long run money demand relationship can be identified, where recursively estimated parameters are almost stable. In addition, the corresponding error correction model survives a wide array of specification tests, including procedures for nonlinearities and parameter instability. Hence, the apparent monetary overhang is in line with standard models of money demand behaviour, and is not expected to lead to a rise in inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 561.

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Length: 48 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (2010) Iss.1, 111-122
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp561

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Keywords: Cointegration analysis; Error correction; Money demand; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Michael Funke, 2001. "Money Demand in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20112, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August.
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  7. Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
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  9. L Tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J Rgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(05), pages 711-733, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "M3 Money Demand and Excess Liquidity in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2007. "An actuarial approach to short-run monetary equilibrium," MPRA Paper 2424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Salvatore Capasso & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "Testing for the stability of money demand in italy: has the euro influenced the monetary transmission mechanism?," Working Papers 2_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  4. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 813, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, 02.
  6. De Santis, Roberto A & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2012. "Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation: A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ralph Setzer & Guntram Wolff, 2013. "Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 297-315, June.
  8. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Dynamic Modelling of the Demand for Money in Latvia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 703, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2006. "Liquidity preference as rational behaviour under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 2771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Nuno Alves & Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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