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Inflation and core money growth in the euro area

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Author Info
Neumann, Manfred J.M.
Greiber, Claus
Abstract

This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation expectations develop adaptively. The model?s solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core component. The core component is defined as the long-lasting, low-frequency component of nominal money growth in excess of real money demand. Using quarterly euro area data from the 1980-2004 period we apply different filters (Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter-King, wavelets) as empirical measures of core money. The estimation results uniformly indicate that inflation and core money growth are closely linked, exhibiting a one?to-one relationship in the long-run. Higher-frequency money growth, in contrast, contributes nil to the explanation of actual inflation. As a stylised fact regarding frequency domain properties, cycles of money growth below eight years are found to be insignificant for inflation. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,36.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2302

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Related research
Keywords: ECB; inflation; quantity theory; frequency analysis; Hodrick-Prescott filter; band pass filter; wavelets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Silja Göhlmann & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "The Educational and Professional Background of Central Bankers and its Effect on Inflation – An Empirical Analysis," RWI Discussion Papers 0025, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  6. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/17, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Peter Kugler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers 103, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Crowley, Patrick, 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Research Discussion Papers 1/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Money velocity and asset prices in the euro area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  13. Abelardo Salazar Neaves & Oliver Hossfeld & Jan Hagen & Kai Carstensen, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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