The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank
AbstractUsing Swiss data from 1983 to 2008, this paper investigates whether growth rates of the different measures of the quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then, employing error correction models, measures of excess money are derived. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 onwards, with time horizons of one, two, and three years. In these calculations, M2 and M3 clearly outperform M1, and excess money is generally a better predictor than the quantity of money. Taking into account also the most (available) recent observations that represent the first three quarters of the economic crisis, the money demand function of M3 remains stable while the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation rates inside the target zone between zero and two percent, and the same holds for forecasts based on M3 for 2011, forecasts based on M2 provide evidence that the upper limit of this zone might be violated in 2011.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 with number 2009-30.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Stability of Money Demand; Monetary Aggregates and Inflation;
Other versions of this item:
- Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 221-253, March.
- Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," CESifo Working Paper Series 2928, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gebhard KirchgÃ¤ssner & JÃ¼rgen Wolters, 2009. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," CREMA Working Paper Series 2009-30, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-11-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-11-21 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-11-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-11-21 (Monetary Economics)
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