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China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences

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  • Wei Liao
  • Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba

Abstract

China has been moving to a more market oriented financial system, which has implications for the monetary policy environment. The paper investigates the stability of the money demand function (MDF) in light of progress in financial sector reforms that, for example, have resulted in significant financial innovation (so-called shadow banking) and more liberalized interest rates. The analysis of international experience suggests that rapid development of the financial system often leads to structural shifts in the MDF. For example, financial innovation and liberalization alter the sensitivity of money balances to income and the interest rate. For China, we find that the stable long-run relationship between money demand, output, and interest rates that existed between 2002 and 2008 disappears after 2008. This coincides with the period of rapid financial innovation, especially the growth in off-balance sheet and nonbank financial intermediation. The results suggest that usefulness of M2 as an intermediate monetary target has declined with financial innovation and reform. A result that underscores the importance of moving toward increased reliance on more price-based targets such as interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Liao & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2014/075, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/075
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    2. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2014. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. Andrei Vernikov, 2014. "China and Russia: Institutional Coherence between the Banking Systems," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 130, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    4. Vernikov, Andrei, 2014. "Сравнение Институциональной Структуры Банковских Систем России И Китая [Comparing the institutional structure of Russian and Chinese banking systems]," MPRA Paper 64339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jinghan Cai & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Le Xia, 2015. "China’s shadow banking sector: Arbitrage, window-dressing and wealth management products," Working Papers 1530, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "The determinants of the benchmark interest rates in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 395-417.
    7. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Zhiwei Xu, 2021. "Interest Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 373-419, April.
    8. Langzi Chen & Zhihong Chen & Jian Li, 2019. "Can Trade Credit Maintain Sustainable R&D Investment of SMEs?—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    9. John G. Fernald & Eric Hsu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2014. "Has China’s economy become more “standard”?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Simiso Msomi, 2017. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and the Growth of Industrial Sector in China," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 46-59.
    11. Xiang Gao & Wen Kong & Zhijun Hu, 2022. "The Effects of National Fundamental Factors on Regional House Prices: A Factor-Augmented VAR Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Bradley Jones & Joel Bowman, 2019. "China's Evolving Monetary Policy Framework in International Context," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Hyoung-kyu Chey & Yu Wai Vic Li, 2016. "Bringing the Central Bank into the Study of Currency Internationalization: Monetary Policy, Independence, and Internationalization," GRIPS Discussion Papers 15-23, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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