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Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty

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  • Joseph Atta-Mensah

Abstract

The author examines the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money. Using a general-equilibrium theory, he argues that in a world inhabited by risk-averse agents, who are constantly making portfolio decisions against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, the demand for money is a function of real income and interest rates, and an index of economic uncertainty. The author then uses the Johansen procedure of cointegration to estimate the long-run stationary relationships between a Canadian monetary aggregate (M1, M1++, and M2++) and the explanatory variables. Allowing for an index of economic uncertainty to enter the short-run dynamics of the estimated model, the author obtains empirical results that show that, in general, increased economic uncertainty leads, in the short run, to a rise in the desired M1 and M1++ balances that agents would like to hold. The impact of economic uncertainty on M2++ is, however, observed to be negative.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-25.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-25

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Keywords: Monetary aggregates;

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References

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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  2. Ali Dib, 2003. "An estimated Canadian DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 949-972, November.
  3. Godbout, M.J. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  5. Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. " A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
  6. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  10. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2004. "The Demand for Money in a Stochastic Environment," Working Papers 04-7, Bank of Canada.
  11. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
  2. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Demand Function in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 54-70, April.
  3. Seitz, Franz & von Landesberger, Julian, 2010. "Household money holdings in the euro area: An explorative investigation," Working Paper Series 1238, European Central Bank.
  4. Cronin, David & Kennedy, Bernard, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Impact Money Growth? A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2007. "An actuarial approach to short-run monetary equilibrium," MPRA Paper 2424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2006. "Liquidity preference as rational behaviour under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 2771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Fassil Fanta, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, excess liquidity and stability of money demand (M3) in Australia," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 325-344.
  8. David Cronin & Robert Kelly & Bernard Kennedy, 2011. "Money growth, uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 155-167, May.
  9. Wei Liao & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 14/75, International Monetary Fund.

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