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Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty

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Author Info
Joseph Atta-Mensah

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Abstract

The author examines the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money. Using a general-equilibrium theory, he argues that in a world inhabited by risk-averse agents, who are constantly making portfolio decisions against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, the demand for money is a function of real income and interest rates, and an index of economic uncertainty. The author then uses the Johansen procedure of cointegration to estimate the long-run stationary relationships between a Canadian monetary aggregate (M1, M1++, and M2++) and the explanatory variables. Allowing for an index of economic uncertainty to enter the short-run dynamics of the estimated model, the author obtains empirical results that show that, in general, increased economic uncertainty leads, in the short run, to a rise in the desired M1 and M1++ balances that agents would like to hold. The impact of economic uncertainty on M2++ is, however, observed to be negative.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2004/wp04-25.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-25.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-25

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Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
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Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary aggregates;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Godbout, M.J. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ali Dib, 2003. "An estimated Canadian DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 949-972, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  6. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2004. "The Demand for Money in a Stochastic Environment," Working Papers 04-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. " A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2007. "An actuarial approach to short-run monetary equilibrium," MPRA Paper 2424, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cronin, David & Kennedy, Bernard, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Impact Money Growth? A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/07, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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