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Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?

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Author Info
Peter Kugler () (University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, CH-4003 Basel,Switzerland)
Sylvia Kaufmann () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the role of M3 as an indicator for future inflation and correspondingly for current monetary policy in the euro area. We analyse the short and long run interrelationship between inflation and money growth in an error correction framework taking into account the output gap and short and long term interest rates. We find robust cointegration between money growth and inflation. In the long run, shocks in M3-growth account for 33 percent to 40 percent of the inflation forecast error variance. The effects of output gap and interest rate shocks on inflation are mainly transitory and there forecasting variance shares are negligible for medium term horizons. There is evidence for a second regime prevailing at the end of the seventies and beginning of the eighties which relates to periods of high interest rate and inflation rate levels and decreasing rates in real money growth. Overall, we present firm evidence for a stable dynamic relationship between money growth and inflation which implies that the deviation of the real money growth from its long run average is a good indicator of future inflation acceleration or deceleration. Of course, this finding provides evidence in favour of the recently de-emphasised first pillar of the ECB strategy. According to our results, however, an M3-growth rate of slightly above 5% is compatible with a non-accelerating average rate of inflation of 2%.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 103.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 09 2005
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:103

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Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Hat die Geldmenge ausgedient?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 423-453, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engsted, Tom & Gonzalo, Jesus & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Testing for multicointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 259-266, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "Is European Money Demand Still Stable?," Kiel Working Papers 1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Neumann, Manfred J.M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Oliver Holtemöller, 2004. "A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 553-574, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2006. "Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area," Working Papers 131, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001419, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2007. "The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 816, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Helge Berger & Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 08/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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