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Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985

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  • Evans, George W

Abstract

For U.S. data over 1950-85 the stochastic components of GNP growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary, and there is substantial feedback between these variables. The unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the "business cycle." A bivariate VAR model is used to describe output-unemployment dynamics to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations, and to decompose output into trend and cycle. The bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted VAR and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the Okun's Law equation. Copyright 1989 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 4 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (July-September)
Pages: 213-37

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:4:y:1989:i:3:p:213-37

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Cited by:
  1. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  2. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
  3. Rey, Serge & Varachaud, Pascal, 2000. "Le comportement des taux de change réels européens de la fin Bretton Woods à l’adoption de l’euro
    [The behavior of European real exchange rates from the Bretton Woods system end to the adopt
    ," MPRA Paper 49502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
  5. Sven Schreiber, 2009. "Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach," Kiel Working Papers 1505, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1992. "Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-22.
  7. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, . "Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Fabien Tripier, 2005. "Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth," Macroeconomics 0510015, EconWPA.
  9. Edward S. Knotek II & Stephen Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-33.

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