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Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours

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Author Info

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam,Tinbergen Institute,Kyoto University,Complutense University of Madrid)

  • David Allen

    (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University)

  • Ron Amram

    (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University)

Abstract

This paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important consequences for investors in related markets. In order to capture these potential effects, we explore these issues using an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) return equation. A univariate GARCH model is then adopted to test for the persistence of volatility in stock market returns, as represented by stock market indices. Finally, univariate GARCH, multivariate VARMA-GARCH, and multivariate VARMA-AGARCH models are used to test for constant conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects across these markets. Each model is used to calculate the conditional volatility between both the Shenzhen and Shanghai Chinese markets and several other markets around the Pacific Basin Area, including Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, during four distinct periods, beginning 27 August 1991 and ending 17 November 2010. The empirical results show some evidence of volatility spillovers across these markets in the pre-GFC periods, but there is little evidence of spillover effects from China to related markets during the GFC. This is presumably because the GFC was initially a US phenomenon, before spreading to developed markets around the globe, so that it was not a Chinese phenomenon.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 805.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:805

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Keywords: Volatility spillovers; VARMA-GARCH; VARMA-AGARCH; Chinese stock market.;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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  7. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  8. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440.
  10. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  11. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  12. Luiz Renato Lima & Breno Pinheiro Néri, 2006. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 1, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 0075, European Central Bank.
  14. Gyu-Hyen Moon & Wei-Choun Yu, 2010. "Volatility Spillovers between the US and China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 129-149.
  15. Johansson, Anders C. & Ljungwall, Christer, 2009. "Spillover Effects Among the Greater China Stock Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 839-851, April.
  16. Matteo Manera & Michael McAleer & Margherita Grasso, 2006. "Modelling time-varying conditional correlations in the volatility of Tapis oil spot and forward returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 525-533.
  17. Bing Zhang & Xindan Li, 2008. "The asymmetric behaviour of stock returns and volatilities: evidence from Chinese stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 959-962.
  18. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  19. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  20. Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Return and Volatility Spillovers among the East Asian Equity Markets," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0907, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  21. Mike So & Alex Tse, 2009. "Dynamic Modeling of Tail Risk: Applications to China, Hong Kong and Other Asian Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-210, September.
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Cited by:
  1. David E. Allen & Mohammad A. Ashraf & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Financial dependence analysis: applications of vine copulas," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 67(4), pages 403-435, November.
  2. Chia-Lin Chang & David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2013. "Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Jul 2013.
  3. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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