Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism

Contents:

Author Info

  • George Athanasopoulos

    ()

  • Rob J. Hyndman

    ()

Abstract

In this paper, we model and forecast Australian domestic tourism demand. We use a regression framework to estimate important economic relationships for domestic tourism demand. We also identify the impact of world events such as the 2000 Sydney Olympics and the 2002 Bali bombings on Australian domestic tourism. To explore the time series nature of the data, we use innovation state space models to forecast the domestic tourism demand. Combining these two frameworks, we build innovation state space models with exogenous variables. These models are able to capture the time series dynamics in the data, as well as economic and other relationships. We show that these models outperform alternative approaches for short-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government forecasts, which are found to be more optimistic than our forecasts.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2006/wp19-06.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 19/06.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2006-19

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61-3-9905-2489
Fax: +61-3-9905-5474
Email:
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/

Related research

Keywords: Australia; domestic tourism; exponential smoothing; forecasting; innovation state space models.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
  2. J Keith Ord & Ralph D Snyder & Anne B Koehler & Rob J Hyndman & Mark Leeds, 2005. "Time Series Forecasting: The Case for the Single Source of Error State Space," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
  4. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  5. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
  6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  7. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
  8. Ashton de Silva & Rob J. Hyndman & Ralph D. Snyder, 2007. "The vector innovation structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  9. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  10. Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  11. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  12. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  13. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
  14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  15. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 870-886, July.
  2. Minfeng Deng & George Athanasopoulos, 2009. "Modelling Australian Domestic and International Inbound Travel: a Spatial-Temporal Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
  4. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. OROIAN, Maria & RATIU, Ramona-Flavia & GHERES, Marinela, 2013. "Using The Residents’ Profile As Potential Tourists In Tourist Market Segmentation: The Case Of Mures County, Romania," Academica Science Journal, Economica Series, Dimitrie Cantemir University, Faculty of Economical Science, vol. 1(2), pages 21-34, May.
  6. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-09 is not listed on IDEAS

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2006-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Grose).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.