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Prévision de la demande touristique par méthodes Delphi et Box-Jenkins : Application à la destination du Vietnam

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  • Tan Vo-Thanh

    (Excelia Group | La Rochelle Business School, CeRIIM - Excelia Group | La Rochelle Business School, CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion [EA 1722] - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - ULR - La Rochelle Université)

Abstract

L'article étudie l'évolution des principaux marchés émetteurs à destination du Vietnam, à savoir la Chine, le Japon et les États-Unis dans le contexte touristique concurrentiel d'Asie du Sud-Est. De ce fait, nous analysons la demande touristique potentielle en provenance de ces marchés à l'horizon 2010 en utilisant deux méthodes complémentaires : la méthode Delphi et la technique Box-Jenkins. Les résultats montrent que le tourisme vietnamien verrait, selon la méthode Delphi, dans les années à venir ses arrivées chinoises, japonaises et américaines croître et valident l'efficacité de la méthode Box-Jenkins pour des prévisions à court terme. Par contre, elle ne s'avère pas très fiable pour des prévisions à long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan Vo-Thanh, 2010. "Prévision de la demande touristique par méthodes Delphi et Box-Jenkins : Application à la destination du Vietnam," Post-Print hal-02544954, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02544954
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02544954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Kulendran, 1996. "Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 203-222, September.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
    4. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    5. Tan Vo-Thanh, 2006. "Le temps des risques : Une démarche de marketing d'une destination touristique face au nouveau contexte touristique mondial," Post-Print hal-02544865, HAL.
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