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Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Apergis

    (University of Piraeus, Greece)

  • Andrea Mervar

    (Institute of Economics, Croatia)

  • James E. Payne

    (Georgia College & State University, USA)

Abstract

This study examines the performance of four alternative univariate seasonal time series forecasting models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA], SARIMA with Fourier transformation, ARAR, and fractionally integrated autoregressive-moving average) of tourist arrivals to 20 Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts reveal that the SARIMA model with Fourier transformation consistently outperforms the other models across the respective regions investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:23:y:2017:i:1:p:78-98
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2015.0499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    4. Chengyuan Zhang & Fuxin Jiang & Shouyang Wang & Shaolong Sun, 2020. "A New Decomposition Ensemble Approach for Tourism Demand Forecasting: Evidence from Major Source Countries," Papers 2002.09201, arXiv.org.
    5. Anca-Gabriela Turtureanu & Rodica Pripoaie & Carmen-Mihaela Cretu & Carmen-Gabriela Sirbu & Emanuel Ştefan Marinescu & Laurentiu-Gabriel Talaghir & Florentina Chițu, 2022. "A Projection Approach of Tourist Circulation under Conditions of Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.
    6. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana, 2018. "Data measurement and the change in persistence of tourist arrivals to the United States in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.
    7. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    8. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.
    9. María Genoveva Millán & María Del Pópulo. Pablo-Romero & Javier Sánchez-Rivas, 2018. "Oleotourism as a Sustainable Product: An Analysis of Its Demand in the South of Spain (Andalusia)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

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