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A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels

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Author Info

  • Brännäs, Kurt

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • Hellström, Jörgen

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • Nordström, Jonas

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 503.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0503

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Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
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Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
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Keywords: Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis;

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References

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  1. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
  2. Melenberg, B. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1991. "Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures," Discussion Paper 1991-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 1994. "Habit Formation And Variety Seeking In A Discrete Choice Model Of Recreation Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
  4. Brännäs, Kurt & Hellström, Jörgen, 1999. "Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 501, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  5. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1997. "A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 539-549, December.
  6. Young, Peter & Pedregal, Diego, 1997. "Comments on "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain" by P. Gonzalez and P. Moral," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 551-556, December.
  7. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Frank Windmeijer, 1999. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," IFS Working Papers W99/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
  9. Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
  10. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Brännäs, Kurt & Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2004. "Integer-Valued Moving Average Modelling of the Number of Transactions in Stocks," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 637, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  2. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2007. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  4. Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2005. "Modelling High Frequency Financial Count Data," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 656, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  5. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Brännäs, Kurt & Lönnbark, Carl, 2006. "Effects of Explanatory Variables in Count Data Moving Average Models," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 679, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  7. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  8. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.

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