Brännäs, Kurt () (Department of Economics, Umeå University) Hellström, Jörgen () (Department of Economics, Umeå University) Nordström, Jonas () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
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Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.
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Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number
503.
Length: 13 pages Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999 Date of revision: Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30. Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0503
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