A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels
AbstractStarting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 503.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Brannas, Kurt & Hellstrom, Jorgen & Nordstrom, Jonas, 2002. "A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-30.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-04-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-1999-04-22 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-1999-04-22 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IND-1999-04-22 (Industrial Organization)
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