This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Brännäs, Kurt () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
Hellström, Jörgen () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
Nordström, Jonas () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 503.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0503

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Kjell-Göran Holmberg).

Related research
Keywords: Integer-valued time series estimation tourism demand analysis

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Brännäs, Kurt & Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2004. "Integer-Valued Moving Average Modelling of the Number of Transactions in Stocks," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 637, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Brännäs, Kurt & Lönnbark, Carl, 2006. "Effects of Explanatory Variables in Count Data Moving Average Models," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 679, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2005. "Modelling High Frequency Financial Count Data," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 656, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, . "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kurt Brannas & Jonas Nordstrom, 2004. "An Integer-Valued Time Series Model for Hotels that Accounts for Constrained Capacity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(4), pages 1189-1189. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Apart from a small start up grant in the 1990's, RePEc has received no funding and lives on the help of volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-23.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.