A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels
AbstractStarting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 503.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Brannas, Kurt & Hellstrom, Jorgen & Nordstrom, Jonas, 2002. "A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-30.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-04-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-1999-04-22 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-1999-04-22 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IND-1999-04-22 (Industrial Organization)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melenberg, Bertrand & van Soest, Arthur, 1996.
"Parametric and Semi-parametric Modelling of Vacation Expenditures,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 59-76, Jan.-Feb..
- Melenberg, B. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1991. "Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures," Discussion Paper 1991-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Melenberg, B. & Van Soest, A., 1991. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Modelling of Vocation Expenditures," Papers 9144, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Melenberg, B. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1996. "Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-72214, Tilburg University.
- Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
- Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
- Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
- Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Frank Windmeijer, 1999.
"Individual effects and dynamics in count data models,"
IFS Working Papers
W99/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
- Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 1994. "Habit Formation And Variety Seeking In A Discrete Choice Model Of Recreation Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
- Young, Peter & Pedregal, Diego, 1997. "Comments on "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain" by P. Gonzalez and P. Moral," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 551-556, December.
- Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
- Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1997. "A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 539-549, December.
- Brännäs, Kurt & Hellström, Jörgen, 1999.
"Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression,"
UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies
501, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Brännäs, Kurt & Lönnbark, Carl, 2006. "Effects of Explanatory Variables in Count Data Moving Average Models," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 679, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Kurt Brannas & A. M. M. Shahiduzzaman Quoreshi, 2010.
"Integer-valued moving average modelling of the number of transactions in stocks,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1429-1440.
- Brännäs, Kurt & Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2004. "Integer-Valued Moving Average Modelling of the Number of Transactions in Stocks," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 637, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008.
"Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
- Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2007. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
- Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2005. "Modelling High Frequency Financial Count Data," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 656, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kjell-Göran Holmberg).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.