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Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia

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  • Petrevska, Biljana

    ()
    (“Goce Delcev” University – Stip, Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics – Gevgelija, Macedonia)

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    Abstract

    The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.

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    File URL: http://utmsjoe.mk/files/Vol.%203%20No.%201/1-B1-Petrevska_Biljana.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia in its journal UTMS Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 45-55

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:utmsje:0048

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    Web page: http://www.utms.edu.mk/
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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting; Box-Jenkins methodology; international tourism demand; Macedonia;

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    References

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    1. Petrevska, Biljana, 2011. "Tourism In The Global Development Strategy Of Macedonia: Economic Perspectives," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 2(1), pages 101-108.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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    Cited by:
    1. Petrevska, Biljana, 2013. "Investigating Tourism Seasonality In Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 4(1), pages 37-44.

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