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Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Petrevska, Biljana

    (“Goce Delcev” University – Stip, Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics – Gevgelija, Macedonia)

Abstract

The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.

Suggested Citation

  • Petrevska, Biljana, 2012. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 3(1), pages 45-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:utmsje:0048
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petrevska, Biljana, 2011. "Tourism In The Global Development Strategy Of Macedonia: Economic Perspectives," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 2(1), pages 101-108.
    2. John Trevor Coshall, 2005. "A Selection Strategy for Modelling UK Tourism Flows by Air to European Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 141-158, June.
    3. Stephen F. Witt & Haiyan Song & Stephen Wanhill, 2004. "Forecasting Tourism-Generated Employment: The Case of Denmark," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 167-176, June.
    4. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Egon Smeral, 2004. "Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 145-166, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2021. "Modeling and forecasting international tourism demand in Zimbabwe: a bright future for Zimbabwe's tourism industry," MPRA Paper 110901, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2021.
    2. Petrevska, Biljana, 2013. "Investigating Tourism Seasonality In Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 4(1), pages 37-44.
    3. Ridderstaat, Jorge & Oduber, Marck & Croes, Robertico & Nijkamp, Peter & Martens, Pim, 2014. "Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 245-256.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; Box-Jenkins methodology; international tourism demand; Macedonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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