Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia
AbstractThe paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia in its journal UTMS Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 3 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
forecasting; Box-Jenkins methodology; international tourism demand; Macedonia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Petrevska, Biljana, 2011. "Tourism In The Global Development Strategy Of Macedonia: Economic Perspectives," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 2(1), pages 101-108.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Petrevska, Biljana, 2013. "Investigating Tourism Seasonality In Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 4(1), pages 37-44.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zoran Ivanovic).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.