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Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

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  • Ridderstaat, Jorge
  • Oduber, Marck
  • Croes, Robertico
  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Martens, Pim

Abstract

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.

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  • Ridderstaat, Jorge & Oduber, Marck & Croes, Robertico & Nijkamp, Peter & Martens, Pim, 2014. "Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 245-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:245-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.005
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    5. Malaj, Emi & Malaj, Visar, 2023. "Determinants of international tourism: Empirical evidence from three Mediterranean countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 66-72.
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    7. Rubén Lado-SestayoAuthor-Email: mila.vivel@usc.es & Milagros Vivel-Búa, 2019. "Las corporaciones hoteleras españolas: determinantes internos y externos de su desempeño," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 64(1), pages 23-24, Enero-Mar.
    8. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2018. "Revisiting the Balassa–Samuelson effect: International tourism and cultural proximity," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 915-944, December.
    9. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    10. Wanvilai Chulaphan & Jorge Fidel Barahona, 2021. "The Determinants of Tourist Expenditure Per Capita in Thailand: Potential Implications for Sustainable Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "The Seasonality of Demand in Spanish Tourist Municipalities: Analysis and Determinants," Working Papers 2072/306518, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    12. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    13. Laila Shahzad & Ajwa Tahir & Maryam Dogar & Salar Saeed, 2021. "A metric-based assessment of climate and tourism in major cities of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13607-13627, September.
    14. Martin Falk, 2014. "Weather and Tourism Demand in the Summer Months across Austrian provinces," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1149, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Olya, Hossein G.T. & Alipour, Habib, 2015. "Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-80.
    16. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    17. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    18. Hamid Siroosi & Gholamali Heshmati & Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny, 2020. "Can empirically based model results be fed into mathematical models? MCE for neural network and logistic regression in tourism landscape planning," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3701-3722, April.
    19. Li, Jianping & Feng, Yuyao & Li, Guowen & Sun, Xiaolei, 2020. "Tourism companies' risk exposures on text disclosure," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Claudio Detotto & Sauveur Giannoni & Claire Goavec, 2017. "Does good governance attract tourists?," Working Papers 002, Laboratoire Lieux, Identités, eSpaces et Activités (LISA).
    21. Nidal Alzboun, 2018. "Measuring Seasonality of Tourism Demand in Petra, Jordan (2006-2017)," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 131-131, September.
    22. Haroon Rasool & Shafat Maqbool & Md. Tarique, 2021. "The relationship between tourism and economic growth among BRICS countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    23. Xuan Ma & Hiroatsu Fukuda & Dian Zhou & Mengying Wang, 2019. "A Study of the Pedestrianized Zone for Tourists: Urban Design Effects on Humans’ Thermal Comfort in Fo Shan City, Southern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    24. Rubén Lado-SestayoAuthor-Email: mila.vivel@usc.es & Milagros Vivel-Búa, 2019. "The Spanish hotel corporations: Internal and external performance drivers," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 64(1), pages 25-26, Enero-Mar.
    25. Nikeel N Kumar & Arvind Patel & Rup Singh, 2022. "Modelling tourism competitiveness in small Pacific island countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 692-713, May.

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