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Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad

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  • Juraj Valachy

    ()

  • Evžen Ko?enda

    ()

Abstract

Exchange rate stability was defined as one of the prerequisites for monetary integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a selected group of European Union countries (the Snake) participating in the former European Monetary System. We compare volatilities in the currencies of both groups under specific exchange rate regimes using two different approaches to modeling exchange rate volatility: squared returns parametric model and GARCH. Both methods provide identical results for the currencies of the Visegrad group: an increase in volatility after a floating exchange rate regime was introduced. The case of the Snake countries exhibits mixed results for two currencies and a concurring result for the others: a decrease in volatility. In one case we are left with an insignificant coefficient. We consider the results as robust and suitable for policy making decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2003-622.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-622

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Keywords: exchange rate regime; volatility; transition; integration; Central Europe; European Union; nonlinearity; interest rate parity;

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References

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  1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  2. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  4. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  6. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de España Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
  7. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Banco de España Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
  8. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Real exchange rate volatility, financial crises and nominal exchange regimes," Working Papers 12-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  4. Dipankor Coondoo & Paramita Mukherjee, 2004. "Components of volatility and their empirical measures: a note," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1313-1318.
  5. Balazs Egert & Evzen Kocenda, 2005. "Contagion Across and Integration of Central and Eastern European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp798, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Bodea, Cristina, 2010. "The political economy of fixed exchange rate regimes: The experience of post-communist countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, June.

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