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Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro

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Author Info
Lucjan T Orlowski (Sacred Heart University)

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Abstract

This study reviews monetary policy options that are seemingly viable for adopting the euro by the new Member States of the European Union. A fully autonomous direct inflation targeting is believed to be suboptimal for convergence to the euro as it does not incorporate convergence parameters into the central bank reaction function and instrument rules. In an attempt to correct for such deficiency, this study advocates adopting a framework of relative inflation forecast targeting where a differential between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts becomes the main objective of the central bank’s decisions. At the same time, some attention to the exchange rate stability objective becomes necessary for facilitating the monetary convergence process. Foreign exchange market interventions, rather than interest rate adjustments, are viewed as a preferred way of achieving this objective.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0503022.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 29 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0503022

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 20
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary convergence; euro adoption; ERM II; new Member States;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. György Szapáry, 2000. "Maastricht and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Countries During The Run-Up to EMU," MNB Working Papers 2000/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert F. Westcott & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  4. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fabio M. Natalucci & Federico Ravenna, 2002. "The road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 741, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & M. Taner Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to Eurozone: How Far, How Fast," Departmental Working Papers 0501, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Aasim M. Husain, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Ashoka Mody & Eisuke Okada & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Money Rules For The Eurozone Candidate Countries," Macroeconomics 0501033, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  21. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  22. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Patching up the Pact: some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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