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Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey

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  • Domac, Ilker
  • Mendoza, Alfonso

Abstract

The salient characteristics of emerging market economies coupled with the increasing adoption of inflation targeting in these countries has stimulated much debate about the role of the exchange rate in inflation targeting regimes. The authors aim at shedding more light on this issue by investigating whether central bank foreign exchange interventions have had any impact on the volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey since the adoption of the floating regime. To this end, their study, using daily data on foreign exchange intervention, employs an Exponential GARCH framework. Empirical results suggest that both the amount and frequency of foreign exchange interventions have decreased the volatility of the exchange rates in these countries. The authors'findings corroborate the notion that if foreign exchange interventions are carried out with finesse and sensibly-that is, not to defend a particular exchange rate-they could play a useful role in containing the adverse effects of temporary exchange rate shocks on inflation and financial stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3288.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3288

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Keywords: Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Markets and Market Access; Economic Stabilization; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation;

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  1. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  3. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
  4. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
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  6. Kim, Suk-Joong & Kortian, Tro & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility -- Australian evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 381-405, December.
  7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
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  12. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  15. Felipe Larraín & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "How should emerging economies float their currencies?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 365-392, July.
  16. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Kaen, Fred R. & Koutmos, Gregory & Sherman, Heidemarie C., 2000. "Bundesbank intervention effects through interest rate policy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 263-274, December.
  17. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
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