IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriele Galati
  • Piti Disyatat

    (Bank of Thailand)

Abstract

We survey the literature on the efficacy of foreign exchange market intervention in emerging market countries, emphasising the differences with the literature on industrial countries. We then use official statistics on central bank intervention by the Czech National Bank in conjunction with options market data, to study the impact of intervention during 2001-02. We find that central bank intervention had some (weakly) statistically significant impact on the spot rate and the risk reversal but that this impact was small. We do not find evidence that intervention had an influence on short-term exchange rate volatility. We also find that, in our sample period, Czech authorities appeared to intervene mainly in response to an acceleration of the speed of koruna appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Galati & Piti Disyatat, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna," BIS Working Papers 172, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work172.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work172.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
    3. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Papers (Old Series) 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-747, November.
    7. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17.
    9. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information: The Chilean Case," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 215-256, January.
    11. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
    12. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1990. "Objectives and effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention : A survey of the empirical literature," Research Memorandum FEW 456, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    14. Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    17. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    18. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, April.
    19. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank.
    20. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    21. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    22. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    23. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    25. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/095, International Monetary Fund.
    26. King, Michael R, 2003. "Effective Foreign Exchange Intervention: Matching Strategies with Objectives," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 249-271, Summer.
    27. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
    28. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    29. Mr. Ousmene J Mandeng, 2003. "Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Option Contract Specification: The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2003/135, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mr. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Guimarães-Filho, 2003. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Elements of Best Practice," IMF Working Papers 2003/152, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    33. Michael R. King, 2003. "Effective Foreign Exchange Intervention: Matching Strategies with Objectives," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 249-271, July.
    34. Geert J. Almekinders, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Intervention," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 71.
    35. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    4. Brause, Alexander, 2008. "Foreign exchange interventions in emerging market countries: New lessons from Argentina," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 79, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Colombia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/032, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Chang, Mei-Ching & Suardi, Sandy & Chang, Yuanchen, 2017. "Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-390.
    8. David Archer, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention: methods and tactics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 40-55, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Mr. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Guimarães-Filho, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2004/123, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    13. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    14. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    15. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    16. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    17. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    18. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    19. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2020. "The Moses effect: can central banks really guide foreign exchange markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2837-2865, June.
    20. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banks and their policies; foreign exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.