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Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Public Information: the Chilean Case

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Author Info
Matías Tapia
Andrea Tokman

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of exchange rate interventions using daily and intraday data for Chile, from 1998 to 2003. Its main contribution is the recognition of the role played by transparency and public announcements in the success of the intervention policy, through the existence of an expectations mechanism which directly impacts the exchange rate. Three foreign exchange policy instruments are distinguished –spot, dollar denominated papers (BCD´s) and announcements- and treated as independent interventions. Time series estimations are used to capture the effect of the traditionally studied spot interventions, as well as the effects associated to the announcement channel that we propose as potentially relevant. Results show that the impact of individual interventions (spot and BCD) are extremely small and, in most cases, non-significant. Also, the importance of the hypothesized announcement mechanism is confirmed. The impact of Central Bank actions on the exchange rate’s level and trend seem to be channeled through the public announcements made by the monetary authority. The market adjusts its expectations to the information revealed through them, with the exchange rate responding accordingly. These effects occur on longer time spans than the ones suggested by the traditional literature. The negligible effect of individual interventions is also found, for the year 2001, with the use of intraday data.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 255.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:255

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1991. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Reprints 1512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  2. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers 68, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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  6. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate - Have Interventions Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Williamson, John, 1998. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 59-79, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Felipe G. Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: From the Band to Floating and Beyond," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 152, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2001. "Central bank interventions and exchange rate band regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 677-700, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2003. "Efectos de las Intervenciones en el Mercado Cambiario: El Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 206, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R., 2004. "Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 302, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R., 2004. "Flexible Exchange Rate Regime and Forex Interventions: The Chilean Case," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Tipo de Cambio Flexible con Metas de Inflación en Chile: Experiencia y Temas de Interés," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 14, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Selected Issues," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 22, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "La Gran Transición de Regímenes Cambiarios y Monetarios en América Latina," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 17, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Herman kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luís Antonio Ahumada & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Desarrollo del mercado de derivados cambiarios en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(1), pages 35-58, June. [Downloadable!]
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