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Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Public Information: the Chilean Case

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  • Matías Tapia
  • Andrea Tokman

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of exchange rate interventions using daily and intraday data for Chile, from 1998 to 2003. Its main contribution is the recognition of the role played by transparency and public announcements in the success of the intervention policy, through the existence of an expectations mechanism which directly impacts the exchange rate. Three foreign exchange policy instruments are distinguished –spot, dollar denominated papers (BCD´s) and announcements- and treated as independent interventions. Time series estimations are used to capture the effect of the traditionally studied spot interventions, as well as the effects associated to the announcement channel that we propose as potentially relevant. Results show that the impact of individual interventions (spot and BCD) are extremely small and, in most cases, non-significant. Also, the importance of the hypothesized announcement mechanism is confirmed. The impact of Central Bank actions on the exchange rate’s level and trend seem to be channeled through the public announcements made by the monetary authority. The market adjusts its expectations to the information revealed through them, with the exchange rate responding accordingly. These effects occur on longer time spans than the ones suggested by the traditional literature. The negligible effect of individual interventions is also found, for the year 2001, with the use of intraday data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 255.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:255

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  1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
  4. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers 68, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2003. "Efectos de las Intervenciones en el Mercado Cambiario: El Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 206, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: From the Band to Floating and Beyond," Working Papers wp192, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  8. John Williamson, 1999. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," Policy Briefs PB99-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Takatoshi Ito, 2002. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?: The Japanese experiences in the 1990s," Discussion Paper Series a428, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  13. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2001. "Central bank interventions and exchange rate band regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 677-700, October.
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