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Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96

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Author Info

  • William Melick

    (Kenyon College)

  • Gabriele Galati

Abstract

This paper uses a new data set, based on Reuters news articles, to capture intervention that is perceived by FX traders and probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from option data to describe market expectations. We find that, between September 1993 and April 1996, traders viewed the Bank of Japan as responding mainly to deviations of the exchange rate from what they considered to be some implicit target levels. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve was viewed to have mainly intervened when market conditions seemed most conducive to a successful intervention. We find that perceived intervention had no statistically significant effect on the exchange rate level and on the skewness of the PDFs. We also present evidence that, on average, perceived intervention increased traders' uncertainty about future exchange rate movements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 77.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:77

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References

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  1. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1993. "Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Beine,M. & Palm,F.C. & Laurent,S., 2003. "Central Bank Forex Interventions Assessed Using Realized Moments," Research Memorandum 057, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:77:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy: With or Without Transparency? The Case of Japan," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 5-34.
  4. Beine, Michel & Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 904-913, May.
  5. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2012-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2007. "Intervention Policy of the BoJ: a Unified Approach," LSF Research Working Paper Series 07-19, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  7. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113 Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
  9. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
  10. Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent & Franz Palm, . "Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets assessed using realized moments," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10407, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Jér�me Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.

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