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Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans
Richard K. Lyons

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Abstract

This paper tests the portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination in a new way. Past work on portfolio balance in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand, rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on interest rates, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for portfolio-balance effects on price. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio-balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Portfolio-balance effects are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to central-bank trades as well, as long as they are sterilized, secret, and provide no monetary-policy signal. Intervention of this type is most effective when the flow of macroeconomic news is strong.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8356.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8356

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2007. "Intervention Policy of the BoJ: a Unified Approach," Working Papers of CREFI-LSF (Centre of Research in Finance - Luxembourg School of Finance) 07-19, CREFI-LSF, University of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Beine,M. & Palm,F.C. & Laurent,S., 2003. "Central Bank Forex Interventions Assessed Using Realized Moments," Research Memoranda 057, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2009. "A brief empirical history of U.S. foreign-exchange intervention: 1973-1995," Working Paper 0903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  7. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Public Information: the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 255, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," NBER Working Papers 9875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michel Beine & Charles S. Bos & Sebastian Laurent, 2005. "The Impact of Central Bank FX Interventions on Currency Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-103/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal, 2005. "Why do central banks intervene secretly? Preliminary evidence from the BoJ," Working Papers DULBEA 05-09.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Rasmus Fatum & Michael R. King, 2005. "Rules versus Discretion in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada High-Frequency Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Portes, Richard, 2001. "The European Contribution to International Financial Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 2956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks’ FX reaction functions," Working Papers DULBEA 07-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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