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Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets

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Author Info
C. L. Osler

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Abstract

In this paper, I provide evidence that currency stop-loss orders contribute to rapid, self-reinforcing price movements, or "price cascades." Stop-loss orders, which instruct a dealer to buy (sell) a certain amount of currency at the market rate once the rate has risen (fallen) to a prespecified level, generate positive-feedback trading. Theoretical research on the 1987 stock market crash suggests that such trading can cause price discontinuities, which would manifest themselves as price cascades. ; My analysis of high-frequency exchange rates offers three main results that provide empirical support for the hypothesis that stop-loss orders contribute to price cascades: (1) Exchange rate trends are unusually rapid when rates reach exchange rate levels at which stop-loss order have been documented to cluster. (2) The response to stop-loss orders is larger than the response to take-profit orders, which generate negative-feedback trading and are therefore unlikely to contribute to price cascades. (3) The response to stop-loss orders lasts longer than the response to take-profit orders. Most results are statistically significant for hours, although not for days. Together, these results indicate that stop-loss orders propagate trends and are sometimes triggered in waves, contributing to price cascades. Stop-loss propagated price cascades may help explain the well-known "fat tails" of the distribution of exchange rate returns, or equivalently the high frequency of large exchange rate moves. The paper also provides evidence that exchange rates respond to noninformative order flow.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 150.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:150

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Foreign exchange ; Prices;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95. [Downloadable!]
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence From the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 12413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Konstantin Tyurin, 2004. "High-Frequency Principal Components and Evolution of Liquidity in a Limit Order Market," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 579, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," NBER Working Papers 11041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Janusz Brzeszczynski & Michael Melvin, 2006. "Explaining trading volume in the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 25-34. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ingmar Nolte & Sandra Lechner, 2007. "Customer Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Empirical Evidence from an Internet Trading Platform," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-03, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  9. Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
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